Focus on… Benchmark study on climate adaptation change policies
Extreme climate events are already common in France and the effects of climate change will increase. The forthcoming energy and climate planning law and the third national climate change adaptation plan (PNACC) should spur the mobilisation of actors.
In view of this, IGEDD carried out a mission to benchmark climate change adaptation policies, surveying eight countries : six in Europe (Germany, Austria, Spain, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Switzerland), along with Canada and Japan.
Some of these provisions also include sectoral guidelines on policies most affected by climate change, such as flood risks, urban planning, forestry, and drought, particularly in Spain.
Germany, like France, is preparing a new national plan and a draft adaptation law. One of the key measures envisaged is the inclusion of a limited number (around thirty) of measurable adaptation goals in the adaptation strategy. Such an approach would stand out from the current plans of the various countries, that mainly include indicators and a great many (often over a hundred) targeted means – which is hardly surprising, given the diversity of the policies concerned.
The following table summarises the nature of the legislative provisions currently applicable in three countries studied by the mission :
Distribution of roles | Risk assessment | Planning | Sectorial guidelines | |
---|---|---|---|---|
UK (2008) | Among the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK, and the 4 Nations | Yes, by DEFRA (environment ministry) advised by the CCC | Yes, a national plan and review cycle exist | No |
Japan 2018 | Among ministries, local authorities, businesses, and the general public | Yes, by the environment ministry and recommended for other stakeholders | Yes, content of the national plan, review cycle, and invitation to other actors to implement their plan | No |
Spain (2021) | Among public administrations | Yes, incorporated into the national plan | Yes, detailed description of the content of the national plan, sectoral plans for each ministry | Yes, notably water, urban planning, health, biodiversity, agriculture, forest |
Canada, Germany | Austria, Spain | Switzerland, Japan | UK | France PNACC-2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
only one scenario, called “8.5” * Germany : the risk assessment divides this scenario into an optimistic and a pessimistic case |
2 scenarios : RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Austria : the assessment specifies the temperature rise corresponding to these scenarios in Austria. |
2 scenarios : RCP 2.6 and 8.5 Switzerland : special attention to scenario 8.5, in the name of the precautionary principle |
2 scenarios : + 2°C et and 4°C corresponding to the scenarios 2.6 and 6.0 Adaptation to +2°C and consideration of +4°C |
one single scenario : +2°C at horizon 2050 |
*as defined by the IPCC
The “4.5” scenario leads to end-of-century warming of 2.7°C, close to that projected to occur consequent to countries fulfilling the commitments made under the Paris Agreement. Scenario “8.5” corresponds to a warming of 4.4°C.
As demonstrated in the latest IPCC report, many climate changes intensify as warming gathers pace. In particular, the IPCC mentions increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall and, in some areas, agricultural and ecological droughts. The image below illustrates this relationship between temperature and climatic events :
For this reason, the mission recommends defining a climate change reference, expressed in the form of temperature rises and corresponding to two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios defined by the IPCC : one “middle of the road” and the other more pessimistic, in the same vein as the climate references adopted by most of the benchmarking countries. This reference should be taken into account by local authorities and companies in assessing the consequences of climate change in their field, as well as in determining what actions need to be taken to adapt to it.
On the subject of flood prevention, the definition of reference hazards must include the impacts of climate change. This is beginning to happen with regard to rising sea levels and must be further developed with regard to the impacts of changes in precipitation patterns on flooding. The plans studied generally include investments in the development and reliability of monitoring and warning systems for extreme events, as these are effective, “no regrets” measures.
With regard to anticipating the consequences of rising sea levels, the mission identified the UK’s “Thames Estuary 2100” programme and the Netherlands’ Delta Programme as particularly good examples of constructed adaptation policies, involving Parliament or civil society in the most structuring decisions.
- area where the increased risk of flooding due to climate change is accepted,
- area where the level of risk is maintained
- area where the level of risk will be reduced
source : UK Environment Agency (EA)
Conclusion
On the very day of the publication of the IGEDD report at the end of February, Christophe BÉCHU, Minister of Ecological Transition and Territorial Cohesion, set up the Ministerial Steering Committee on Adaptation to Climate Change. The Committee is tasked with working on climate reference scenarios that will serve as the basis for a new adaptation strategy.
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